Dream Killers Versus Survivorship Bias

May 07, 2021

I'll preface this with some details about myself, so you can see where my stance and ideas have developed from. I never completed sixth form. When you're around 15/16 in the UK, you take your GCSE exams. After which you have a few choices. You can continue studying by doing your A-levels (or equivalents) in sixth form/colleges, or you can take an apprenticeship to combine education and work, or you can join the workforce and start earning an income. The route that's sold to most people (myself included) is to go from school to 6th form/college and then unversity. Back when I was 16 and I started 6th form I thought I had it all planned out.

I was a bright kid. I was quite reserved growing up which is probably the result of my conservative upbringing, and naturally gravitated towards authority figures as I felt safer. I never chose to be teacher's pet - it just naturally happened as I was raised with a lot of fear. So growing up when I was told I'd be a doctor, that's all I thought I'd ever be. There was no other plan, ever.

But that same intelligence was also the reason why when I hit sixth form, I realised it wasn't the place for me. That "safe" path that had been planned for me wasn't my path. I became very disillusioned with the education system when I saw how it was run like a business. I don't know if they're still around, but the big thing then was "UCAS" points. The more points you score, the more money the institution earns. We were sold it on the idea that it makes you a more attractive prospect to universities too - but the reality is very different. Oxford/Cambridge will not give a damn if you have an A in general studies if you want to study mathematics.

So now the same kid who everyone thought would go on to do great things at university started to ask questions. It started simple - why? When I asked why, I never got a straight answer. When I confronted teachers about why I should concentrate on this general studies exam instead of using that time to study the core subjects I picked - I got the answer of "just do it". So I changed who I asked the question of. Instead of asking these oh so mighty authority figures in my life at the time, I started questioning my peers, and people older than myself who had already been through the system. It was a moment where I felt like the veil had been lifted from my eyes. The simple answer to my queston of why: it benefitted them. It was never there to benefit me. It was just sold to me on the lie that it would be beneficial to me. So now when I was sold this lie, what else was I lied to about? By extension, who else in my life had been lying to me, consciously or subconsciously?

I remember back in around 2007, my school took me to see a motivational speaker. At that time, I had no clue what a motivational speaker was, and I definitely had no clue what they would be talking about. That one trip changed my mentality 3 years later. That speaker was Andrew Mohammad. He never took a conventional path to get to where he is now, yet he has been wildly successful. Around this time, I learned the story of Richard Branson.

When I started asking why, I also started doing something else. Observing. I started paying attention to the people I asked questions of to learn why they might have a specific answer. I started understanding their life and situation which dictated the answer they gave. When crabs are put in a barrel, each crab could climb out quite easily. However when any crab attempts to get out, the other crabs pull them down. This phenomena is called crab mentality.

Where people had to take the sensible option, that's the only thing they know. Whenever someone comes to them with big dreams, they kill it. The same way they had their dreams killed. Now conversely, when I approached someone super successful, I found the opposite - but I was never warned of the risks I'd face along the way. They exhibited a different behaviour - survivorship bias.

But myself at 16, I saw things a different way. I saw successful people and unsuccessful people alike; they were all people. People did it. They're not ethereal beings. Just people. So why can't I believe and achieve more than anyone else? When I started my first job at 17, I had the idea of retiring when I was 30. I'm 26 now, and I won't achieve retirement by 30, but I will part retire at 30. And I'm on track to fully retire by 40. Earlier than that, I will be looking into working for myself rather than my income being tied to others. What am I doing special? Nothing. What have I learned about? Passive incomes. Stocks and investing mainly, but that's not what will let me retire early. You need the money invested to make anything from it, and returns are in single digit percents for dividends. What will let me retire early is having that as a goal and making moves towards it.

Towards "dream killers", I just stopped letting them know my dreams and ideas. How can they advise me when they never walked any paths like that themselves? Towards the successful, I developed a different attitude. Instead of asking their advice, I first ask them their story. How did they get to be where they are now? What were the losses and the scares along the way? Understanding their story helps me understand their advice, and what they know about the pitfalls along the way.

And to the dreamers? Keep walking the path less travelled. Make your goals then work towards them. Follow the examples set by the people who walked those paths before you - but learn from their mistakes. But know that each choice you make has consequences. Choose wisely. But never be a dream killer.